火热的全球经济下人力资源应该如何适应？The Red Hot Global Economy: How Should HR Adapt?
我们生活在有趣的时代。几十年来，全球经济第一次增长。失业率达到30年来的最低点，薪水开始上涨，雇主正在大力争夺一套新的技能。（根据LinkedIn的说法，“机器学习技能”现在是最热门的，在过去的五年中，这项工作的需求增加了近10倍。）
我们看到很多证据表明就业市场非常火爆。根据ADP最近的一项研究显示，美国近5％的员工每个月都会换工作，其中60％是自愿的。人们为什么换工作？对超过1400万名员工进行研究的ADP研究表示，头号问题是薪水。人们找到更高薪的职位，所以他们移动。
虽然这对经济有利，但对雇主而言将会越来越难。正如我记得2000年的“网络公关”时间（以及后来的崩溃），在这些高就业时期，就业市场变得竞争激烈，工资上涨，雇主必须更加努力地吸引技术熟练的人。如下图所示，这就是现在正在发生的事情。我们接近韩战以来没有看到的失业率。
首席执行官感到压力
这个问题现在已经到了董事会的空间。最新的会议董事会首席执行官研究表明，“寻找和留住人才”现在是首席执行官头脑中的首要问题。高管们担心组织能力，领导力，留存率和参与度以及他们的就业品牌。有需求技能的人（例如工程师，专家，销售人员等）开始表现得像电影明星一样：游说高薪，比较雇主彼此，并希望公司不断改善工作经验。
我刚刚参加了一家大型全球性公司的200强领导力活动，人们关心的第一个话题是如何吸引更多高潜力进入公司，发展领导力渠道，并计划随着自动化变革的发展而发生的技能和工作变化。首席执行官亲自要求每位经理“负责建立你的领导力管道”。
人力资源部门面临压力
我们人力资源部门正在处理这个问题。每个人力资源部门都在讨论就业品牌，员工敬业度和员工经验等主题。我们的全球客户之一已经开始为所有10万以上的人员开发“员工角色”，所有这些都旨在学习如何理解和改善公司各个层面的工作体验。
这些事情很重要。如果你的公司在社交媒体网站上没有得到很好的尊重或低评价，你现在发现招聘越来越困难。虽然业务可能很好，但在别的地方可能会更好。销售人员，工程师，科学家，产品专家甚至入门级员工倾向于转向发展速度更快的公司，往往让陷入困境的公司陷入波澜。
这种经济环境迫使我们改变人力资源的优先事项。在当今的经济环境中，我鼓励人力资源团队专注于生产力，参与度和留任率，现在是时候仔细审视您的奖励和附带福利。大多数公司正在制定福祉计划，他们正在实现工作环境的现代化，许多公司已实施免费午餐，免费晚餐，免费洗衣以及免费的健身和锻炼计划等项目。在硅谷，多年来对于员工福利的战争不断升级。如果你不提供美味的早餐，午餐（通常是晚餐），你根本无法吸引工程师。人们认为这些福利是他们报酬的一部分，他们比较他们工作中的食品成本。
在我的职业生涯中，我经历了几个这样的经济周期，而且我的经验表明，虽然许多员工留在原地，但是高潜力人员，创收人员以及经验丰富的领导者都有很多机会，所以我们必须仔细观察它们。
快速移动人员。扩大您对潜力的定义。
在这样的经济体中有很多事情需要考虑。一种是重新思考你的传统继任管理计划，并找到一种更持续提供增长和发展的方法。就像我们一直在实施持续绩效管理一样，组织现在需要提供更多的定期促销活动（我遇到的一家公司每年提供两次“半升级促销”），更多的发展任务以及比以往更多的学习机会。
过去我们每年坐下一次，试图弄清楚我们的几个“高潜力”（HIPO）是谁。今天我建议你重新设计整个过程，这样每个人都可以定期从增长中受益。
这是一个建议如何。在过去，我们一直将HIPO定义为“能够在公司内上升两级”的人。今天我建议至少有三种我们想要承认的领导类型：
商业领导力：可以“经营业务”或推动盈亏的人
技术领导：技术专家或可以领导技术团队的人员
团队或项目领导：可以领导项目，计划和计划的人员。
这极大地拓宽了您的领导力，几乎每个人都有机会发展壮大，并渴望获得更负责任，更有价值的职位。
图2：三种类型的领导者需要扩展的继任格子
我最近访问的一家客户是一家全球性医疗保健公司，他们的主要领导差距之一是发展“科学和临床领导者”。这些人不一定会成为首席执行官，但他们对业务至关重要 - 所以他们需要定期晋升，薪金审查和流动性。数字专家，分析专家，网络安全专家和其他需求技术人员属于同一类别。
在工作流程中提供学习
如果你不能经常宣传，请记住，保留的巨大动力是员工的“学习能力”。即使很难找到促销活动，当人们认为“这项工作真的把我带到某个地方”时，他们也会参与进来。这是创造学习环境，培养领导者成长思维的一个问题，并且给予人们不论其角色的学习文化。
虽然L＆D在过去几年一直是一个麻烦的行业（我们在2017年发现了一个负面的网络推动者评级），但我很高兴地说，现在解决这个问题相对容易，今年是投资于微型网络的一年，学习，学习体验平台，自我创作内容，视频学习以及我们几十年来一直在讨论的所有文化方面的知识，而且您实际上可以“在工作流程中”提供学习，使其更具相关性和可使用性比以往任何时候都要多。
人力资源准备好了吗？我相信是这样。
在过去的一年中，我一直在与世界上一些最具代表性的公司会面，他们的人力资源团队正在适应。今天，他们专注于职业管理，员工体验，更多创新奖励计划以及各种有趣的学习，数字生产力和福利策略。
让我们都在这里享受美好时光。是的，这个就业市场造成了很大的压力，但如果你专注于赋权，发展和引人入胜的核心 - 你的组织就能蓬勃发展。现在云层已经在地平线上了，所以我们享受阳光。
针对热门经济的五项人力资源战略。
1.关注就业品牌。
了解并研究候选人如何看待你的公司，并将这些信息反馈给首席执行官和高级商业领袖，以便推动管理层改进文化，参与度和工作环境。今天，您可以使用Glassdoor，LinkedIn，您自己的参与调查，脉搏调查，停留访谈，匿名调查以及大量其他聆听设备来了解您在市场中的感受。您应该尽可能申请“最佳工作场所”奖项，这也会提升您的游戏体验，并促使您改善工作体验。
2.保持当前的工资和福利。
现在我认为公司必须每六个月刷新一次奖励计划。每年的速度不够快。我曾经和那些给员工半年一次审查和加薪的公司谈过，即使这在某些情况下可能还不够。我们刚刚完成的研究表明，每年不止一次重新访问薪水和奖金的公司表现优于仅每年审核报酬的公司。并确保您的透明度：现在公布大量薪酬信息 - 所以您应该公布您的薪金基准，让员工充分披露您是否支付高于或低于平均水平（当然有充分的理由）。
3.建立一支专注于了解员工旅程的团队，并专注于端到端的员工体验。
这意味着从候选人到新员工到第一天，第一个月，第一季度，第一年，第一次促销等等。设计思维的概念现在已经被很好地理解，因此您需要使用它们来构建一种数字化的体验，以帮助人们在职业生涯中茁壮成长。最好的起点是有一个高转换率的员工团队（即通常是第一年的零售员工），这样你就可以获得一个良好的设计思维项目。然后，一旦你熟练掌握了它，你就可以为各种工作转变创造员工旅程，并寻找使他们变得更好的方法。在德勤，我们称之为“重要时刻”。
4.重新设计您的L＆D战略。
今年是2018年，采用微型学习策略的一年，更新您的LMS和工具，并深入了解“工作流程中的学习”的概念。我很快就会写更多内容 - 但让我提醒你，当人们觉得自己“没有学习”时，他们会离开公司。你可以解决这个问题。我们最近调查的公司中超过50％告诉我们，他们正在增加L＆D平台的预算。是时候了。顺便说一下，开始制定一个更好的职业管理工具的战略 - 这是人力资源技术中最热门的新部分，它将成为您工作未来自动化，人工智能和工作变革的保险。
5.保持首席执行官和高级领导的知情权。
确定你的分析计划，确保你知道技能，领导力，参与度和保留差距在哪里。
让首席执行官知道人才稀少 - 他或她会真正关心。如果您需要聘用更多招聘人员，投资新的开发计划，或从根本上改变工作模式以适应，您需要他们的帮助才能迅速动员。在竞争激烈的时期，首席执行官希望尽其所能帮助，所以要抓住机遇。（2018年会议委员会首席执行官研究称“缺乏关键技能”成为今天的首要业务挑战。）
最后：现在是时候调整您的人力资源战略，以应对以竞争为中心，以技能为中心的市场。调整你的招聘，专注于推动包容性和多元化的多元文化，并确保你的职业生涯管理和学习在前台。没有人知道这种经济繁荣将持续多久，但现在有一场人才争夺战，我们必须武装自己来应付它。
---
关于作者：Josh Bersin是Deloitte，Deloitte Consulting LLP 的创始人和负责人 ，Deloitte Consulting LLP是一家领先的研究和咨询公司，专注于企业领导力，人才，学习以及工作与生活的交叉。
以上由AI翻译完成，供您参考。HRTechChina倾情奉献，转载请注明。
以下为英文：
We are living in interesting times. For the first time in decades the entire global economy is growing. Unemployment rates are reaching a 30 year low, salaries are beginning to rise, and employers are competing heavily for a new set of skills. (“Machine learning skills” are now the hottest according to LinkedIn, a job that has increased in demand by almost 10 times in the last five years.)
We see lots of evidence that the job market is red hot. According to a recent study by ADP, almost 5% of the US workforce now changes jobs every month, and 60% of this is voluntary. Why are people changing jobs? The ADP research, which studied more than 14 million employees, says the #1 issue is salary. People are finding higher paid positions so they move.
While this is all good for the economy, it will be increasingly hard on employers. As I remember during the year 2000 "dot-com" time (and later crash), during these periods of high employment the job market becomes hyper-competitive, salaries go up, and employers have to work harder to attract skilled people. As the chart below shows, this is what is happening now. We are nearing an unemployment rate not seen since the Korean War.
Fig 1: Unemployment Rate Near Record Low
CEOs Feel the Pinch
This issue has now reached the board room. The latest Conference Board CEO research shows that “finding and retaining talent” is now the #1 issue on the mind of CEOs. Executives are worried about organizational skills, their leadership pipeline, retention and engagement, and their employment brand. And people with in-demand skills (e.g. engineers, specialists, sales people, etc.) are starting to behave like movie stars: lobbying for high salaries, comparing employers against each other, and expecting companies to continuously improve the work experience.
I just attended a top 200 leadership event for a large global company and the #1 topic on peoples minds were how to attract more high-potentials into the company, grow the leadership pipeline, and plan for skill and job changes as automation changes work. The CEO personally asked each and every manager to "take responsibility for building your leadership pipeline."
The Pressure Is On for HR
We in HR are on the hook to deal with this issue. The topics of employment brand, employee engagement, and the employee experience are being discussed in every HR department. One of our global clients has embarked on a project to develop "employee personas" for all their 100,000+ people, all with the intention to learn how to understand and improve their work experience at every level in the company.
And these things matter. If your company is not well respected or has low ratings on social media websites, you are now finding it harder and harder to recruit. And while business may be good, it may be better somewhere else. Sales people, engineers, scientists, products specialists, and even entry level employees tend to move to faster growing companies, often leaving troubled companies in waves.
This economic environment is forcing us to change the priorities in HR. In today's economy I encourage HR teams to focus on productivity, engagement, and retention and it's now time to look carefully at your rewards and fringe benefits. Most companies are now building programs for well-being, they are modernizing the work environment, and many have implemented programs like free lunch, free dinner, free laundry, and free gym and exercise programs. Here in Silicon Valley, there has been an escalating war for employee benefits for years. If you don’t offer people a gourmet breakfast, lunch, (and often dinner) you simply cannot attract engineers. People consider these benefits a part of their compensation, and they compare the cost of food in their job offers.
I’ve been through several of these economic cycles in my career, and my experience shows that while many employees stay where they are, high-potentials, people in revenue-generating roles, and experienced leaders have lots of opportunities, so we have to watch them closely.
Move People Faster. Broaden Your Definition of Potential.
There are many things to think about in an economy like this. One is to rethink your traditional succession management program and find a way to offer growth and progression on a more continuous basis. Just like we have been implementing continuous performance management, organizations now need to offer more regular promotions (one company I met with offers "half-level promotions" twice per year), more developmental assignments, and more opportunities to learn than ever before.
In the past we sat down once a year and tried to figure out who our few "high-potentials" (HIPO) were. Today I'd suggest you re-engineer that entire process, so everyone can benefit from growth on a regular basis.
Here is a suggestion how. In the past we always defined a HIPO as someone who could "move up two levels in the company." Today I'd suggest there are at least three types of leadership we want to recognize:
Business leadership: people who can "run a business" or drive a P&L
Technical leadership: people who are technical experts or can lead technical teams
Team or Project leadership: people who can lead projects, initiatives, and programs.
This greatly broadens your leadership pipeline, and gives nearly everyone an opportunity to grow and aspire to a more responsible, rewarding position.
Fig 2: Three Types of Leaders Demand Expanded Succession Grids
A client I recently visited is a global healthcare company, and one of their key leadership gaps is developing "scientific and clinical leaders." These are not necessarily people who would become the CEO, but they are critical to the business - so they warrant regular promotion, salary review, and mobility. Digital experts, analytics experts, cyber security experts, and other in-demand technical people are in the same category.
Deliver Learning In The Flow Of Work
If you can't promote people regularly, remember that an enormous driver of retention is an employee's "ability to learn." Even when promotions are hard to find, people are engaged when they feel that "this job is really taking me someplace." This is a problem of creating a learning environment, building a growth mindset in leaders, and giving people a culture of learning regardless of their role.
While L&D has been a troubled profession for the last few years (we found a negative net-promoter rating in 2017), I"m happy to say that now it is relatively easy to address this. This is the year to invest in micro-learning, learning experience platforms, self-authored content, video-learning, and all the cultural aspects of learning we have been talking about for decades. And you can actually deliver learning "in the flow of work," making it more relevant and consumable than ever. (You can view my presentation on this below.)
Is HR ready for this? I believe so.
Over the last year I have been meeting with some of the most iconic companies in the world, and their HR teams are adapting. Today they are focused on career management, the employee experience, more innovative rewards programs, and all sorts of interesting learning, digital productivity and well-being strategies.
Let’s all enjoy the good times while they’re here. Yes this job market creates a lot of stress, but if you focus on the core of empowering, developing, and engaging people – your organization can thrive. The clouds are out on the horizon for now, so let’s enjoy the sun.
Five HR strategies for a hot economy.
1. Focus on employment brand.
Understand and study how candidates view your company ,and bring this information back to your CEO and top business leaders so you can push your management to improve culture, engagement, and the work environment. Today you can use Glassdoor, LinkedIn, your own engagement surveys, pulse surveys, stay interviews, anonymous surveys, and lots of other listening devices to know how you are perceived in the market. You should apply for "best places to work" awards wherever possible, which will also up your game and push you to make the work experience better.
2. Keep salaries and benefits current.
Right now I believe companies have to refresh their rewards programs every six months. Annually is just not fast enough. I’ve talked with companies that give employees reviews and raises semi-annually and even this may not be enough in some cases. We just completed research that shows that companies that revisit salaries and bonus more than once per year outperform those that only review compensation annually. And make sure you are transparent: a tremendous amount of compensation information is now public – so you should publish your salary benchmarks against peers, giving employees full disclosure about whether you are paying above or below average (with good justification of course).
3. Get a team focused on understanding the employee journey, and focus on the end to end employee experience.
This means everything from candidate to new hire to first day, first month, first quarter, first year, first promotion, and on. The concepts of design thinking are well understood now, so you need to use them to build a digital-enabled experience that helps people thrive throughout their career. The best place to start is with a high turnover employee group (ie. often first year retail employees) so you can get a good design thinking project under your belt. Then once you get good at it you can create employee journeys for various job transitions and look at ways to make them better. At Deloitte we call this "moments that matter."
4. Re-engineer your L&D strategy.
This year, 2018, is the year to adopt a micro-learning strategy, refresh your LMS and tools, and get behind the concepts of “learning in the flow of work.” I’ll be writing a lot more on this soon – but let me remind you, people leave companies when they feel they are “not learning.” You can fix this. More than 50% of the companies we recently surveyed told us they are increasing budget for L&D platforms. It's time. And by the way, start building a strategy for better career management tools too - this is the hottest new segment in HR technology and it will become your insurance for automation, AI, and job changes from the future of work.
5. Keep the CEO and senior leadership informed.
Get your analytics program in shape and make sure you know where skills, leadership, engagement, and retention gaps are high. Let the CEO know where talent is thin - he or she will really care. You will need their help to mobilize quickly if you need to hire more recruiters, invest in a new development program, or radically change job models to adapt. In times of competitive growth CEOs want to do everything they can to help, so take advantage of the opportunity. (Conference Board 2018 CEO study cited "lack of critical skills" as the #1 business challenge today.)
Bottom Line: It's time to adjust your HR strategies to deal with the competitive, skills-centric market ahead. Tune up your recruitment, focus on driving an inclusive and generationally diverse culture, and make sure you have your career management and learning on the front burner. Nobody knows how long this economic boom will last, but for now there's a war for talent, and we have to arm ourselves to deal with it.
---
About the Author: Josh Bersin is the founder and Principal of Bersin by Deloitte, Deloitte Consulting LLP, a leading research and advisory firm focused on corporate leadership, talent, learning, and the intersection between work and life.
Josh is a published author on Forbes, a LinkedIn Influencer, and has appeared on Bloomberg, NPR, and the Wall Street Journal, and speaks at industry conferences and to corporate HR departments around the world.
Josh Bersin
2018年03月08日
Josh Bersin
Josh Bersin：人力资源在未来工作中的重要作用，比你想的更重要！“我们现在在人力资源部门所做的比我在分析师20年中所看到的更重要。人力资源在新的工作世界中扮演着重要的角色，“Bersin说。
一个新的技术世界
Bersin在这些新的工作环境中讨论了技术的巨大影响，并解释说他在职业生涯的大部分时间都在技术行业工作。他给了观众一个简短的介绍时间表，说明大多数技术在职业生涯初期失败的原因，然后与Elon Musk最近将特斯拉汽车投入太空的例子并成功地做到了这一点。
然后他引用去年最受欢迎的圣诞礼物是Alexa机器人 - 突显了我们生活中不断变化的技术进步。
在与人力资源部门进行技术整合时，人们普遍感受到空气中的恐惧，但贝尔辛还有其他想法。他说：“我们听说过人工智能将如何接管我们的工作，并消除我们所做的大量工作。我们拥有的计算机和技术越多，创造的就业机会就越多。在美国，我们几乎低于4％的失业率; 很多工作已经创建 - 他们只是不同类型的工作。“
Bersin解释说，最近进行的研究研究了自2008年经济衰退以来创造的所有工作，发现其中98％是全新的工作。这些主要是替代性工作协议，可以在角色中提供更多的灵活性。
“员工不知所措。我认为生产力放缓的原因之一是因为我们被电子邮件，文本，社交媒体分心 - 这是一种认知过载。“
保留和生产力
关于创造就业的话题，Bersin表示，失业率目前处于历史最低水平，就业机会无处不在，首席执行官们也知道这一点。他说：“现在，企业的头号问题正在吸引和留住人才。”
他继续说道：“如果我们发现很难吸引和留住人才 - 为什么人力资源专业人员会让我们的生产力受到影响？”Bersin呼吁与会者更有效地使用技术，以便衡量参与度，这是任何人力资源部门最感兴趣的领域。有趣的是，Bersin分享了Glassdoor的一个事实，显示2008年（在经济衰退期间）平均参与分数是3.11，现在10年后，他们已经上升到3.2 - 这并没有太大差别，清楚地表明需要改变。
“员工不知所措。我认为生产力放缓的原因之一是因为我们被电子邮件，文本和社交媒体分心 - 这是一种认知负荷，“Bersin解释说。
然后，他开始讨论千禧一代面临的问题，以及最近的一项研究表明，三分之二的千禧一代认为自己的经济福利不会比他们的父母幸运。Bersin呼吁组织在更广泛的社会中发挥更加全面的公民角色。
Bersin表示需要开发三个人力资源领域：
技术和人工智能
人才的吸引力和保留
生产力和福利
工作的新未来
为了进入这个新的和非常多变的工作世界，Bersin建议领导们深入研究他们可以改善员工整体工作体验的五种方式：
一个新的组织结构
对于公司来说，一个巨大的问题是无法数字化运作，因为组织的结构扼杀了它。公司通常围绕不再适用的工业模式进行组织。数字公司需要拥抱并融入灵活的团队网络，这些团队是独立的，但是相互关联的团队，每个团队最多有五个团队。当人们在物理上位于同一地点时，人们倾向于团队，并且手续被拿走。身体接近创造了亲密关系和亲密关系，这将有助于提高参与度和生产力，并创造共享文化，共享领导力和潜在的新人才实践。
重塑管理
成为教练而不是老板，我们需要管理者赋予人们权力，建立团队，指导人员并收集反馈意见。因此，我们现在需要一个不同类型的领导者。如果我们认为历史上的反馈意见将在调查和评估中每年进行一次，那么我们现在（在德勤）就有一个持续的反馈过程。持续的绩效管理当然已经到来，这有助于指导，发展和识别糟糕的业绩。只有4％的高层管理人员意识到组织内部存在问题，但通过这种新技术浪潮，这些工具可以使员工提供实时反馈。
员工体验
当试图定义影响工作人员的问题时，员工的体验数据至关重要。文化是其中的重要组成部分 - 定义使命和价值观的企业随着时间的推移胜过同行8倍; 当人们融入组织的文化时，他们会对公司的评价更高。为人们提供更健康的工作体验并考虑他们的整体福利也很重要，这需要进入人力资源领域的绩效领域。例如，希望重新设计工作场所可以通过帮助包容性，公平性和业务的整体透明度产生积极影响。
职业革新
在不断变化的职业世界中，我们需要建立更好的职业模式，并考虑老龄化的劳动力队伍。我们如何找到更多高级人员的角色？技术和软技能之间的工作正在形成鲜明的对比。只需要1年的教育，人们就可以接受未来工作的再培训。这个选项可以让人们适应并获得更多技能，领导者应该抓住这个机会。
拥抱新技术
在二十一世纪初，我们经历了一次综合人才管理浪潮，之后我们出现了基于云计算且易于使用的产品（例如参与系统），但工作经验没有得到改善。我们可以聪明地工作，并使用新技术将团队带到一起; 例如，我们可以使用工具自动调查您定期发送电子邮件的人员的技能反馈，然后指导您使用这些技能 - 这些技能将由AI驱动。我们需要一个新的系统来帮助我们管理团队。作为一个人力资源团队，你应该与IT人员讨论这种基于团队的新工具，因为他们将成为未来的人力资源平台。“更多的CEO认为未来的工作是以人为中心的，吨。差不多三分之二的首席执行官认为成为数字业务的关键是拥有新技术，但事实并非如此 - 人是关键。作为首席生产力官，人力资源部门应该扮演一个新的角色，“Bersin总结道。
以上由AI翻译，HRTechChina倾情奉献。转载请注明。
英文原文：
Josh Bersin: HR's Essential Role In The New World Of Work
“What we’re doing in HR now is more important than what I’ve seen in my 20 years as an analyst. HR has an essential role in the new world of work,” Bersin said.
A new world of technology
Bersin discussed the enormous impact of technology within these new working climates, explaining that he’d been in the technology industry for most of his career. He gave the audience a brief
timeline, indicating how most technology failed to work at the beginning of his career, then juxtaposed that with the example of Elon Musk recently shooting a Tesla car into space – and doing so successfully. He then cited that the most popular Christmas present last year was the Alexa robot – highlighting the ever-changing technological advancements we are living among.
There is a feeling of widespread apprehension in the air when technology integration is addressed with HR, but Bersin has other ideas. He said: “We’ve heard about how artificial intelligence is going to take over our jobs and eliminate a lot of the work we do. The more computers and technology we have, the more jobs are created. In the US we’re almost below a 4% unemployment rate; lots of jobs have been created – they’re just different types of jobs.”
Bersin explained that there’s been recent research done that studied all jobs created since the 2008 recession, and found that 98% of them are entirely new jobs. These mainly being alternative work agreements, allowing for more flexibility within roles.
“Employees are overwhelmed. I think one of the reasons productivity is slowing down is because we are distracted by emails, texts, social media – it’s a cognitive overload.”
Retention and productivity
On the topic of job creation, Bersin stated that the unemployment rate now is at an all-time low, jobs are everywhere, and CEOs know this. He said: “Right now the number one issue in business is attracting and retaining talent.”
He continued: “If we are finding it difficult to attract and retain talent – why, as HR professionals, are we allowing productivity to suffer?” Bersin urged attendees to use technology much more effectively, allowing it to measure engagement, which is one of the biggest areas of interest to any HR function. Interestingly Bersin shared a Glassdoor fact, showing that in 2008 (during the recession) average engagement scores were 3.11 and now 10 years later, they’ve risen to 3.2 – which isn’t much of a difference, clearly showing the need for change.
“Employees are overwhelmed. I think one of the reasons productivity is slowing down is because we are distracted by emails, texts, social media – it’s a cognitive overload,” Bersin explained. He then went onto discuss the issues millennials face, and how a recent study showed that two-thirds of millennials believe their own economic wellbeing will be less fortunate than their parents. Bersin urged organisations to take a more rounded and citizenship role within wider society.
Bersin indicated that three areas of HR need to be developed:
Technology and AI
Talent attraction and retention
Productivity and wellbeing
A new future of work
To enter into this new and very changeable world of work, Bersin advised leaders to take a deeper look at five ways in which they can improve the overall working experience for employees:
A new organisational structure
A huge issue for companies is the inability to operate digitally because the organisation’s structure stifles it. Companies are often organised around an industrial model that no longer works. Digital companies need to embrace and incorporate agile networks of teams, which are independent, yet interlinked groups with an optimum number of five within each group. People gravitate towards teams when they’re physically co-located, and formalities are taken away. Physical proximity creates intimacy and relationships, which will help improve engagement and productivity and create a shared culture along with shared leadership and potentially new talent practices.
Reinventing management
Be a coach not a boss, we need managers that empower people, build teams, coach people, and collect feedback. Therefore, we now need a different type of leader. If we consider that historically feedback would be carried out once per year in surveys and appraisals, we now (at Deloitte) have a continuous feedback process. Continuous performance management has certainly arrived, which helps coach, develop and identify poor performance. Only 4% of top management is aware of issues within organisations, but with this new wave of technology these tools can enable employees to provide real-time feedback.
Employee experience
When trying to define the issues that affect people at work employee experience data is crucial. Culture is a significant part of this – companies that define a mission and values outperform peers eight-fold over time; when people fit into the organisation’s culture they will rate your company higher. It’s also important to give people a healthier working experience and consider their overall wellbeing, which needs to move into the area of performance within HR. For example, looking to redesign the workplace could have a positive impact by helping with inclusion, fairness and the overall transparency of the business.
Career overhaul
In a world of ever-changing jobs, we need to build better career models and consider the aging workforce. How can we find roles for more senior people? Jobs are becoming stark contrasts between tech and soft skills. People can be retrained for the jobs of future with only 1 years’ worth of education. This option allows people to adapt and gain more skills, and leaders should be seizing this opportunity.
Embrace new technology
In the early 2000s, we went through an integrated talent management wave, after which we had the emergence of products that were cloud-based and easy-to-use (e.g. systems of engagement), but the work experience hasn’t improved. We can be smart with our working and use new technology to bring teams together; for instance, we can use tools to automatically survey people you email on regular basis to feedback on skills and then coach you on those skills – which will be driven by AI. We need a new breed of system to help us manage teams. As an HR team, you should talk to IT about this new breed of team-based tools, as they will become the HR platforms of the future.“More CEOs understand the job of the future is people-centric, but a lot don’t. Almost two-thirds of CEOs think that the key to becoming a digital business is to have new technology, but this isn’t so – people are the key. HR should have a new role, as Chief Productivity Officer,” Bersin concluded.
Josh Bersin
2018年02月27日
Josh Bersin
在争夺最佳人才方面，员工的体验越来越重要Josh Bersin教你五大策略来最大化员工体验在争夺最佳人才方面，员工的体验越来越重要，人力资源需要关注授权，发展和吸引人才进入热门就业市场的核心优势，Josh Bersin写道。
作者：Josh Bersin
我们生活在有趣的时代。几十年来，全球经济第一次增长。失业率几乎处于30年来的最低点，薪水终于开始上涨，雇主正在积极争夺一套新的技能（“机器学习技巧”现在是LinkedIn领域最热门的工作，需求增加在过去五年中近10倍）。
但是这个地平线上有一片小小的灰色云。正如我在2000年股市崩盘时所记得的那样，在非常高的经济增长时期，就业市场变得非常困难，雇主不得不改变他们的策略。
突然之间，每个人都在争夺同样的人才（大会董事会首席执行官的研究表明，“找到并留住人才”现在已成为首席执行官的头号问题），企业开始担心人力资源战略和领导力，以及求职者开始快速跳来跳去。事实上，具有按需技能的人突然开始像电影明星一样行事，游说高薪，比较雇主，并进一步推动公司改善他们的就业品牌。
对于人力资源领导者来说，“员工体验”的整个主题突然成为一个成败的问题。如果你的公司没有得到很好的尊重，在社交媒体网站上获得高评价，并被认为是“不断增长的工作场所”，你会发现吸引人才越来越难。当然，大多数人不会经常换工作，但拥有非常独特技能的人开始走动。销售人员，工程师，产品专家甚至入门级员工开始转向增长最快的公司，使得发展缓慢的公司陷入低谷。
“对于人力资源领导者来说，'员工体验'的整个主题突然成为一个决定性的问题”
人力资源的新挑战
这种情况的问题在于它对人力资源造成了全新的压力。突然间，公司突出了员工体验，生产力，参与度，留存率，福利，奖励以及诸如福利，附加福利，工作环境以及免费午餐，免费晚餐，免费洗衣等各种奇怪的事情。免费健身房和锻炼项目。在我住的硅谷，如果你不给人们美味的早餐，午餐，（经常晚餐），你根本无法吸引工程师。这种不断升级的战争利益不断增加。
在我的职业生涯中，我经历了许多这样的循环，而且我的个人经历表明，许多人只是继续耕耘，留在原地，从经济改善中受益。但高潜力和领导者可以轻松找到新工作，所以我们必须密切关注他们。大多数公司正在重新设计他们的继任管理计划，促进人才流动性，入职培训，按需学习和职业发展，因此需要做很多事情。
最糟糕的是，正如我在2001年和2008年所记得的那样，这一切最终都会崩溃。在未来的某个时候，全球增长将停止，我们都会怀疑这些昂贵的，以员工为中心的计划是否可以承受。我记得我们2008年IMPACT会议的主题是“少用少得多”。我们现在不在这里，但最终会来。
重新调整员工体验策略
人力资源是否准备好了？绝对。我一直在与世界上一些最具标志性和重要性的公司会面，他们的人力资源团队重新关注职业管理，员工体验，新奖励计划以及各种有趣的数字生产力和福利策略。
让我们都在这里享受美好时光。是的，这个热门的就业市场造成了很大的压力，但如果你专注于赋权，发展和引人入胜的核心优势 - 你就会蓬勃发展。现在云层在地平线上，让我们享受阳光吧。
“如果你不给人们美味的早餐，午餐（经常晚餐），你根本无法吸引工程师”
5个最大化新全球经济中员工体验的策略
关注就业品牌。了解并研究候选人如何看待你的公司，并将这些信息反馈给首席执行官和高级商业领袖，以便推动管理层改进文化，参与度和工作环境。
保持当前的工资和福利。现在我认为公司必须每六个月刷新一次奖励计划。每年都不够快。我曾经和那些给员工半年一次审查和加薪的公司谈过，即使这在某些情况下可能还不够。现在公布大量的薪酬信息 - 员工可以找到它，所以您应该领先于此。
重点了解员工的旅程，并关注端到端的员工体验。这意味着从候选人到新员工到第一天，第一个月，第一季度，第一年，第一次促销等等。设计思维的概念现在已经被很好地理解，因此您需要使用它们来构建一种数字化的体验，以帮助人们在职业生涯中茁壮成长。
重新设计您的L＆D战略。今年是2018年，采用微型学习策略的一年，更新您的LMS和工具，并深入了解“工作流程中的学习”的概念。我很快就会写更多内容 - 但让我提醒你，当人们觉得自己“没有学习”时，他们会离开公司。你可以解决这个问题。
通知首席执行官和高层领导。让他或她知道你的留任率，聘用的难度，以及哪些业务领域正面临人才短缺或技能差距。如果您需要聘用更多招聘人员，投资新的开发计划，或从根本上改变工作模式以适应，您需要他们的帮助才能迅速动员。在竞争激烈的时期，首席执行官希望尽其所能帮助，所以要抓住机遇。
图片来源：iStock
以上由AI自动翻译，原文请阅读：
Josh Bersin’s top 5 strategies to maximise the employee experience
The employee experience is increasingly important in the battle for the best talent, and HR needs to focus on core strengths of empowering, developing and engaging people in a hot jobs market, writes Josh Bersin
We are living in interesting times. For the first time in decades the entire global economy is growing. Unemployment rates are almost at a 30 year low, salaries are finally starting to rise, and employers are competing vigorously for a new set of skills (“machine learning skills” are now the hottest according to LinkedIn, a job that has increased in demand by almost 10 times in the last five years.)
But there is a small grey cloud over this horizon. As I remember quite well during the 2000 stock market crash, during very high growth economic times the job market becomes very difficult and employers have to shift their strategies.
Suddenly everyone is competing for the same talent (Conference Board CEO research indicates that “finding and retaining talent” is now the #1 issue on the mind of CEOs), companies start to worry about HR strategies and their leadership pipeline, and job candidates start hopping around quickly. In fact people with in-demand skills suddenly start to behave like movie stars, lobbying for high salaries, comparing employers, and further pushing companies to improve their employment brand.
For HR leaders the whole topic of the “employee experience” suddenly becomes a make or break issue. If your company is not well respected, highly rated on social media websites, and considered a “growing place to work,” you find it harder and harder to attract talent. Sure most people don’t change jobs that often, but people with very unique skills start to move around. Salespeople, engineers, products specialists, and even entry-level employees start to move to the fastest growing companies, leaving the slow growth companies in waves.
“For HR leaders the whole topic of the ’employee experience’ suddenly becomes a make or break issue”
New challenges for HR
The problem with this situation is that it creates a whole new stress on HR. Suddenly companies are focused on the employee experience, productivity, engagement, retention, benefits, rewards, and things like well-being, fringe benefits, the work environment, and all sorts of strange things like free lunch, free dinner, free laundry, and free gym and exercise programs. Here in Silicon Valley, where I live, if you don’t give people a gourmet breakfast, lunch, (and often dinner) you simply cannot attract engineers. This escalating war of benefits keeps going up.
I’ve been through many of these cycles in my career, and my personal experiences shows that many people just plow along and stay where they are, benefiting from the improved economy. But high potentials and leaders can find new jobs easily, so we have to watch them closely. And most companies are re-engineering their programs for succession management, facilitated talent mobility, onboarding, on-demand learning, and career development, so there is a lot to do.
And worst of all, as I remember in the year 2001 and 2008, this all will eventually come to a crashing end. Sometime in the future this global growth will stop, and we will all wonder if these expensive, employee-centric programs are affordable. I remember the theme of our 2008 IMPACT conference was “doing less with less.” We aren’t there now, but it will come eventually.
Refocusing strategies on the employee experience
Is HR ready for this? Absolutely. I have been traveling around meeting with some of the most iconic and important companies in the world, and their HR teams are refocusing on career management, the employee experience, new rewards programs, and all sorts of interesting digital productivity and wellbeing strategies.
Let’s all enjoy the good times while they’re here. Yes, this hot job market creates a lot of stress, but if you focus on your core strengths of empowering, developing, and engaging people – you will thrive. The clouds are out on the horizon for now, let’s enjoy the sun.
“If you don’t give people a gourmet breakfast, lunch, (and often dinner) you simply cannot attract engineers”
5 strategies for maximising the employee experience in the new global economy
Focus on employment brand. Understand and study how candidates view your company, and bring this information back to your CEO and top business leaders so you can push your management to improve culture, engagement, and the work environment.
Keep salaries and benefits current. Right now I believe companies have to refresh their rewards programs every six months. Annually is just no fast enough. I’ve talked with companies that give employees reviews and raises semi-annually and even this may not be enough in some cases. A tremendous amount of compensation information is now public – employees can find it so you should get ahead of this.
Focus on understanding the employee journey, and focus on the end-to-end employee experience. This means everything from candidate to new hire to first day, first month, first quarter, first year, first promotion, and on. The concepts of design thinking are well understood now, so you need to use them to build a digital-enabled experience that helps people thrive throughout their career.
Re-engineer your L&D strategy. This year, 2018, is the year to adopt a micro-learning strategy, refresh your LMS and tools, and get behind the concepts of “learning in the flow of work.” I’ll be writing a lot more on this soon – but let me remind you, people leave companies when they feel they are “not learning.” You can fix this.
Keep the CEO and senior leadership informed. Let him or her know your retention rate, how hard it is to hire, and what areas of the business are suffering from talent shortages or skills gaps. You will need their help to mobilise quickly if you need to hire more recruiters, invest in a new development program, or radically change job models to adapt. In times of competitive growth CEOs want to do everything they can to help, so take advantage of the opportunity.
Image source: iStock
Josh Bersin
2018年02月17日
Josh Bersin
“人员分析现在可以成为战略性竞争优势”
工业工程师弗雷德里克泰勒在1911年发表了他的报告“ 科学管理”，该报告研究了钢厂工厂工人的流动和行为，从而开始了这一趋势。此后，公司已经部署了数千次参与调查，研究了最高领导者的特征，对留存率和营业额进行了无数次评估，并建立了大量的人力资源数据仓库。所有这些努力都是为了弄清楚“我们能做些什么来让我们的人们获得更多收益？”
那么现在这个域被称为人们的分析，它已经成为一个快速增长的核心业务举措。一项题为“ 高影响力人物分析 ”的研究报告由Deloitte在去年11月由Bersin完成，发现69％的大型组织拥有人员分析团队，并积极构建与人员相关数据的综合存储。
为什么增长和为什么业务势在必行？几个技术和商业因素相互碰撞使这个话题变得如此重要。
首先，组织拥有比以往更多的与人员相关的数据。由于办公生产力工具，员工证章阅读器，脉搏调查，集成的企业资源规划系统和工作中的监控设备的激增，公司拥有大量关于员工的详细数据。
公司现在知道人们与谁交流，他们的地点和旅行时间表，工资，工作经历和培训计划。内置于电子邮件平台中的组织网络分析的新工具可以告诉正在与谁交流的领导者，用于音频和面部识别的新工具识别谁处于压力之下，以及摄像机和热传感器甚至可以确定人们在他们身上花费了多少时间书桌。
可以认为，这些信息大部分都是保密和私密的，但大多数员工并不介意获取这些数据的组织，只要他们知道正在改进他们的工作体验，正如2015年会议委员会的研究所显示的那样，Big数据并不意味着大 哥哥。虽然从5月25日起可执行的欧盟通用数据保护条例标准将会将隐私权和治理责任放在人力资源部门，但雇主正在加紧处理这些数据并小心处理这些数据。
其次，作为获得所有这些数据的结果，公司现在可以学习重要而有力的事情。不仅高管们被迫就多元化，性别薪酬公平和营业额等议题进行报告，而且他们现在还可以使用人员分析来了解生产力，技能差距和长期趋势，这些可能会威胁或创造业务风险。
例如，一个组织发现欺诈和盗窃事件是“具有传染性”，导致同一楼层的其他员工在一定距离内出现类似的不良行为。另一种方法是使用情绪分析软件来衡量组织中的“情绪”，并根据他们的沟通模式来识别具有高风险项目的团队。
许多组织现在都在研究营业额，甚至可以通过监测电子邮件和社交网络行为来预测它，从而使管理人员能够在辞职前指导高绩效员工。组织现在使用分析和人工智能或人工智能来解码职位描述，识别造成偏倚招聘池的单词和短语，并防止性别和种族多样性。制造商使用人员分析来识别可能发生事故的员工，而咨询公司可以预测哪些人可能会因过多的旅行而被烧毁，而汽车公司现在知道为什么某些团队按时完成项目，而其他人则总是迟到。
因此，人工智能进入领域，给予它更多的权力和规模。一个新的基于人工智能的分析工具会向管理人员发送匿名电子邮件，询问简单问题以评估管理技能。通过其精心设计的算法，它为管理人员提供了一套无需赘述的建议，并在短短三个月内将管理效率提高了8％。
据Sierra-Cedar 2017人力资源系统调查显示，对于人力资源部门而言，人员分析现在是公司希望替换或升级人力资源软件的首要原因。
但对于首席执行官，首席财务官和首席运营官来说，这更重要。当一个销售团队落后于其配额实现或者商店的销售数字落后时，为什么领导者不会问“我们可能能够解决的团队中的人员，实践和管理者有什么不同？”或者甚至更大问题是“如果我们想通过收购德国的某家公司来发展我们的业务，文化和组织的影响会是什么？”这些关键的战略问题都可以通过人员分析来解决。
这门学科的历史是战术性的，有点神秘。多年来，工业心理学家领导了这项工作，主要关注员工敬业度和营业额。然而，今天，该行业正在采取新的行动，将其精力重新集中在运营，销售，风险和绩效指标上。技术工具在这里，公司已经有人工智能工程师准备以强大而有预见性的方式分析数据。分析人士表示，这个领域将会持续增长，请记住，对于大多数企业而言，劳动力成本是资产负债表中最大和最可控制的支出。
底线很明显：人们的分析现在可以成为战略竞争优势。专注于这一领域的公司可以出租，淘汰和淘汰竞争对手。
以上由AI自动翻译。
Fredrick Taylor, an industrial engineer, started this trend in 1911 when he published his report Scientific Management, which studied the movement and behaviour of factory workers in steel mills. Since then companies have deployed thousands of engagement surveys, studied the characteristics of top leaders, done countless reviews of retention and turnover, and built massive human resources data warehouses. All in an effort to figure out “what can we do to get more out of our people?”
Well now this domain is called people analytics and it has become a fast-growing, core-business initiative. A study, entitled High-Impact People Analytics and completed last November by Bersin by Deloitte, found that 69 per cent of large organisations have a people analytics team and are actively building an integrated store of people-related data.
Why the growth and why the business imperative? Several technical and business factors have collided to make this topic so important.
Firstly, organisations have more people-related data than ever before. Thanks to the proliferation of office productivity tools, employee badge readers, pulse surveys, integrated enterprise resource planning systems and monitoring devices at work, companies have vast amounts of detailed data about their people.
Companies now know who people are communicating with, their location and travel schedules, their salary, job history and training plans. New tools for organisational network analysis, built into email platforms, can tell leaders who is communicating with whom, new tools for audio and facial recognition identify who is under stress, and video cameras and heat sensors can even identify how much time people spend at their desks.
It could be argued that much of this information is confidential and private, but most employees don’t mind organisations capturing this data, as long as they know it is being done to improve their work experience, as shown in 2015 Conference Board research, Big Data Doesn’t Mean Big Brother. While European Union General Data Protection Regulation standards, enforceable from May 25, will put the burden of privacy and governance on HR departments, employers are stepping up to this and treating such data with great care.
Secondly, as a result of having access to all this data, companies can now learn important and powerful things. Not only are executives being forced to report on topics such as diversity, gender pay equity and turnover, but they can also now use people analytics to understand productivity, skills gaps and long-term trends that might threaten or create risk in their business.
One organisation, for example, found incidents of fraud and theft were “contagious”, causing similar bad behaviour among other employees on the same floor within a certain distance. Another is using sentiment analysis software to measure “mood” in the organisation and can identify teams with high-risk projects just from the patterns of their communication.
Many organisations now study turnover and can even predict it before it occurs by monitoring email and social network behaviour, enabling managers to coach high performers before they resign. Organisations now use analytics and artificial intelligence or AI to decode job descriptions, identifying words and phrases that create biased recruitment pools and prevent gender and racial diversity. Manufacturers use people analytics to identify workers who are likely to have accidents, while consulting firms can predict who is likely to be burnt out from too much travel and automotive companies now know why certain teams get projects done on time when others are always late.
AI is, therefore, entering the domain, giving it even more power and scale. A new AI-based people analytics tool sends anonymous emails to a manager’s peers asking simple questions to assess managerial skills. Through its carefully designed algorithms, it gives managers an unthreatening set of recommendations and has improved managerial effectiveness by 8 per cent in only three months.
For human resources departments, people analytics is now the number-one reason companies want to replace or upgrade their HR software, according to the Sierra-Cedar 2017 HR Systems Survey.
But for chief executives, chief financial officers and chief operating officers, it’s even more important. When a sales team is behind its quota attainment or a store’s sales numbers fall behind, why wouldn’t a leader ask “what’s different about the people, practices and managers at those teams that we may be able to address?” Or an even bigger question is “if we want to grow our business by acquiring a given company in Germany, what will the cultural and organisational impact be?” These critical strategic questions can all be answered by people analytics.
The history of this discipline is tactical and somewhat arcane. For years industrial psychologists led the effort and focused primarily on employee engagement and turnover. Today, however, the industry is taking on a new light, refocusing its energy on operational, sales, risk and performance measures. The technology tools are here and companies have AI engineers ready to analyse the data in a powerful and predictive way. And analysts say this domain will grow for years to come; remember that for most businesses, labour costs are the largest and most controllable expense on the balance sheet.
The bottom line is clear: people analytics can now become a strategic competitive advantage. Companies that focus in this area can out-hire, out-manage and out-perform their competitors.
Josh Bersin
2018年02月13日
Josh Bersin
Josh Bersin：2018年人力资源技术：比以往更加智能化 HR Technology for 2018 - More Intelligent than Ever
几乎每一位与我交谈的人力资源供应商都声称拥有基于人工智能（AI）的解决方案，预测分析，聊天机器人或其他形式的算法解决方案，以使HR更好。
正如我所了解的所有这些产品，并开始看到他们的行动，让我给你什么寻找提示。
在招聘市场上，数据确实在推动我们的未来。由于社交网络的无处不在以及数十种智能采购和评估工具，我们的研究表明，人工智能正在创造巨大的价值。在您寻找新的招聘工具（采购，候选人评估，智能聊天机器人和移动招聘平台）时，请供应商向您展示其AI如何工作。询问如何作出决定，以及它可能适用于您的例子。这些供应商远远领先于学习曲线，价值将变得清晰。
在面试管理中，也越来愈多的工具开始提供候选人与面试官的协调沟通，自助服务等，比如优面宝，通过自动化的协调沟通机制安排好候选人的面试时间等。
在学习和发展市场上，现在很多学习管理系统（LMS）平台，学习体验平台和微型学习平台都使用人工智能和算法解决方案来推荐内容，策划内容，并通过最合适的内容来指导学习者学习。这些供应商中的许多都有丰富的经验分析通过内容的最佳路径，正确的时间来查看下一个内容，甚至正确的学习模块来查看您的信心，你的理解的主题。学习活动数据现在可以通过体验API或xAPI（一种记录和跟踪学习过程中点击的所有内容的方式）获得，因此所有这些供应商都变得“聪明”。
在员工敬业度和调查市场，同样的AI波即将到来。一系列供应商的产品开始作为参与和脉搏调查工具，现在提供文本分析，情感分析，词云和员工情绪的智能评估。他们中的一些人可以测量信任网络，并使用组织网络分析来识别网络中的可信任人员，甚至指出可能存在欺诈或不良行为的领域。虽然这些软件都不是完美的，但它比单独阅读每条评论要好，可以让管理者更好地了解他们如何与同行进行对比。
在绩效管理市场中，持续绩效管理软件现在通过查看您在工作中获得的反馈模式，提供活动流，公共和私人评论以及组织网络分析。到时候，这些平台会向管理人员推荐学习和辅导，有些已经这样做了。
在员工自助服务和案例管理方面，平台也变得更加智能。您现在不仅可以在线（或通过您的消息系统）与您的员工系统进行聊天，还可以发送消息（“星期五预订我的休假日”），系统将执行交易。很快，它会向你推荐什么课程，如何放慢和放松以及其他员工福利。
我可以继续下去。市场上大多数人力资源工具都包含“人工智能”和“智能”这两个词，越来越多的人开始工作。
虽然这一切都是积极的，而且肯定会让我们的工作更轻松，但是让我也给你一个警告：AI不是魔法; 它只是高度精炼的统计和数学模型，试图根据大量数据预测和推荐行动。如果你没有足够的数据，AI可能没有那么有用。所以听起来很令人兴奋，我建议你让供应商给你一个真实世界的演示，并尽可能多的参考。
在我看来，AI，预测分析，情感分析，视觉识别和自然语言界面的成熟速度比我们预期的要快得多。所有这些都将影响我们的人力资源技术。只要确保你买的东西确实符合你的需求，并且你所实施的“智能”在你的组织需要的领域是聪明的。
Josh Bersin是德勤咨询（Deloitte Consulting LLP）Bersin™的负责人和创始人。本文件中使用的“Deloitte”是Deloitte LLP的子公司Deloitte Consulting LLP。请参阅www.deloitte.com/us/about，了解我们法律结构的详细说明。根据公共会计规则和条例，某些服务可能无法向证明客户提供。
以上由AI翻译，下面是英文原文：
Almost every HR vendor I talk with claims to have artificial intelligence (AI)-based solutions, predictive analytics, chatbots or some other form of algorithmic solution to make HR better. As I've learned about all these products and started to see them in action, let me give you tips on what to look for.
In the recruitment market, data is really driving our future. Thanks to the ubiquitous nature of social networks and dozens of intelligent sourcing and assessment tools, our research shows, AI is creating significant value. As you search for new recruiting tools (sourcing, candidate assessment, intelligent chatbots and mobile recruiting platforms), ask the vendor to show you how its AI works. Ask to see how decisions are made and for examples of where it might apply to you. These vendors are well ahead of the learning curve, and the value will become clear to you.
In the learning and development market, many learning management system (LMS) platforms, learning experience platforms, and micro-learning platforms now use AI and an algorithmic solution to recommend content, curate content and guide learners through the most appropriate content to learn. Many of these vendors have extensive experience analyzing the best path through content, the right time to view the next content and even the right learning module to view based on your confidence in your understanding of the subject matter. Learning activity data is now available through the Experience API, or xAPI (a way to record and track everything you click on while learning), so all these vendors are becoming "intelligent."
In the employee engagement and survey market, the same AI wave is coming. A flurry of vendors whose products started as engagement and pulse survey tools now provide text analytics, sentiment analysis, word clouds and intelligent assessment of employee sentiment. Several of them can measure trust networks and use organizational network analysis to identify trusted people in your network and even point out areas of potential fraud or bad behavior. While none of this software is perfect, it's better than trying to read every comment individually and can certainly give managers a better idea of how they stack up against their peers.
In the performance management market, software for continuous performance management now provides activity streams, public and private comments, and organizational network analysis by looking at the patterns of feedback you get on the job. In time, these platforms will recommend learning and coaching to managers, and some do this already.
In the area of employee self-service and case management, the platforms are also getting smarter. Not only can you now chat with your employee system online (or through your messaging system), you can send it messages ("Book my vacation day on Friday") and the system will perform a transaction. Soon, it will actually make recommendations to you on what courses to take, how to slow down and relax, and other employee benefits.
I could go on and on. It feels like the words "AI" and "intelligent" have been included on most HR tools in the market, and more and more of this is starting to work.
While all this is positive and definitely making our work lives easier, let me also give you a warning: AI is not magic; it is simply highly refined statistics and mathematical models that try to predict and recommend action based on a mass amount of data. If you don't have enough data, the AI may not be as useful. So as exciting as it sounds, I recommend you ask the vendor to give you a real-world demo and talk with as many references as you can.
There's no question in my mind that AI, predictive analytics, sentiment analytics, visual recognition and natural language interfaces are maturing far faster than we expected. All of this will impact our HR technologies. Just make sure that whatever you buy really fits your needs and that the "intelligence" you implement is intelligent in the areas of need for your organization.
Josh Bersin is principal and founder, Bersin™, Deloitte Consulting LLP. As used in this document, "Deloitte" means Deloitte Consulting LLP, a subsidiary of Deloitte LLP. Please see www.deloitte.com/us/about for a detailed description of our legal structure. Certain services may not be available to attest clients under the rules and regulations of public accounting.
Josh Bersin
2018年02月11日
Josh Bersin
深度文章:工作的未来-未来已至，却没有想象中那么吓人编者注：本文作者是Josh Bersin 是Bersin公司的创始人，对美国乃至全球的人力资源数字化，科技化有着极其深入的研究和了解。他近年来重点关注了工作的未来，这篇是他关于工作的未来的思考。推荐给大家。
工作的未来：为什么现在提出？
“工作的未来”这个词已经成为一个流行词。我在谷歌中搜索该短语发现竟然有四千八百万点击量！突然有数百个关于这个话题的会议，书籍和文章，涵盖了从人工智能到机器人到收入不平等和临时工等方面。人们感兴趣的原因很简单：我们正处在一个行业快速变革的经济周期中。事实上，我敢断言，未来抵达某一个阶段时现在熟知的一些工作将消失。下列是一些我们正在经历的变化：
今天，伴随就业市场极度透明，我们经常换工作。美国婴儿潮一代出生的人（1946年至1964年）在职业生涯中平均更换11.7次工作。而千禧一代每两年更换一次工作。
我们当中的许多人都采取灵活的工作形式。现在在美国有将近 40％的员工是特遣员工 ，而Uber，TaskRabbit等平台使的灵活用工比以往更容易。
随着人工智能，传感器和机器人成为主流，技术正以前所未有的速度使工作更加自动化。 今年中国采用了16万台机器人代替人工。又例如，每周我读的关于无人驾驶汽车和卡车可能失业的文章 。
组织结构受到冲击，这将改变企业中工作的本质。 92％的首席人力资源执行官和首席执行官告诉我们，他们认为公司的结构必须改变，而且大多数都在考虑如何使层级扁平化，使工作更具活力，并进一步利用临时和合同工。
收入不平等不仅是政治辩论的一个重要话题，业已成为一个根本的社会问题。政策制定者如何鼓励企业根据自动化，临时工和企业架构重组同时又可以提供高薪的工作和福利？
转变的本质是一个简单却非常大的想法：“工作”概念本身，以及所相应产生的概念，如职位，级别和工作描述等正在开始消失。取而代之的是什么？人们被雇佣去做“工作”，完成一个项目，领导一个团队，并随时准备着与业务需求的变化保持同步。
接下来让我把“未来工作”分成三个简单的部分来一一阐述：
首先是对个人的影响：我们为什么工作，工作如何融入我们的生活，我们的职业生涯如何进展，我们如何在技能和能力方面保持与时俱进，以及工作如何给我们带来意义和目的。
其次是对组织的影响：工作的内容是什么，人与机器扮演什么角色，组织如何设置，如何利用临时工，以及公司如何重新定义工作随着软件和机器人不断变的更加强大。
第三，对社会影响：提供什么形式的教育使人们为未来的工作做准备，如何在工作变动时应该如何应对和过渡，如何支持最低工资政策，移民和工作标准，以及如何解决像收入不平等这样的经济问题和失业问题。
今天所有这些问题仍处于辩论之中，希望未来有机会逐个讨论。
未来工作对个人的影响
在个人方面，工作变得弹性，颠覆性和压倒性。由于我们在工作（和家中）的信息和技术的无情攻击，2/3的组织告诉我们他们的员工有点不知所措。今天人们每天看他们的手机80亿次，根据微软的研究人们的注意力区间比金鱼时间更短，而且没有足够的休假时间。（美国的平均假期从1998年的20.3天下降到16.2天）。更糟糕的是，通过Twitter，Skype，Snapchat，WhatsApp，Slack，Facebook，Gmail和Outlook这些似乎有无数的方式可以联系到我们。“工作”和“生活”之间的隔阂已经消失，我们都沉迷于噪音。（谷歌搜索发现85,000条关于“电话瘾”的文章）为应对这一挑战，出现了大量的图书，视频，课程和网站行业都致力于帮助我们管理的生活。现在有工具来帮助我们放松和专注，帮助改善睡眠的计划，跟踪运动的监视器，以及关于运动，营养和超级食物的无数文章。心理学，神经科学，人类表现和瑜伽已经走到一起，我们都变得“量化”了。
虽然这一切对我们个人来说都很难，但更大的问题是我们的生产力不能提高。今天特定的技术浪潮（自iPhone诞生以来）已经提供了任何技术时代的最低生产力提升。（这包括室内管道，电力，汽车和大型计算机的发明）。所以工作并没有变得“容易”。经济学家对此非常担忧（请阅读 Robert Gordon的“美国经济的兴衰” ），因为生产力下降会降低收入增长，经济增长和生活水平的长期提高。
为什么生产力差距？许多经济学家认为，我们衡量生产力的方式已经过时了，但我认为它很清楚。我们真的没有更多的生产力，只是觉得是。我们生活在一个不断产生信息容易分心的世界，同时一直寻找更多的分享方式。当新的消息到来时，我们都遭受FOMO（害怕错过）的困扰。销售这些工具的公司在“用户参与”上赚钱，所以他们已经建立了相当先进的游戏机制。想想手机信息提示的红点：你真的可以阻止你点击它吗？
职业的变化
不仅工作变得更有活力和碾压性，我们管理职业的方式也发生了变化。正如我在《“黑“社会：组织应该做什么 》中所写，我们不得不接受这样一个事实：我们的事业不再“上升”，不能依靠一家公司终身照顾我们。理解这种转变的一个简单方法就是思考《生命的三个箱子》一书的作者迪克·鲍尔斯（Dick Bowles）所创造的形象。现在不像过去，不再按照学习工作然后退休的顺序，而是学习工作享受人生的结合过程，希望这个过程持续到晚年。
未来工作的组织方面
在组织方面，有两件事情正在发生。首先，工作正迅速改变，因为人工智能接管了越来越多的任务。正如我们熟悉的Siri或Cortana，相同类型的软件现在能够翻译照片，传感器信息和数据。保险公司现在有软件可以查看凹陷车的图片，识别汽车的品牌和型号，并计算索赔金额。软件可以读取X射线，判断准确率几乎两倍于经验丰富的放射科医生，而语音识别输入速度比人快300％。自然语言处理，推理和自学等技术正在成熟。Amazon Echo，Apple的Siri，Microsoft的Cortana，IBM的Watson以及Viv Lab的Viv可以理解命令，执行任务和学习。想想呼叫中心会发生什么。当您打电话更改预订或更改订单时，代理商必须查看您的账户，找到您的账户并找到您的交易。现在可以通过语音识别和人工智能来完成大部分工作。如果代理商必须键入到终端中，则可以通过称为RPA（机器人过程自动化）的软件来自动进行打字，该软件监视击键并自动开发机器人软件。这个市场正在加速的原因之一是传感器已经变得比以往更便宜（比我们的眼睛看得更好的传感器现在成本低于2,000美元）。我们携带的智能手机通常有6个嵌入式传感器（温度，GPS，加速计，湿度，环境声，磁力计等）。这些传感器使移动设备能够做我们从未想过电脑可以做的事情，Pokemon Go只是一个开始。不久，我们将会有设备可以听到声音，了解当下到压力水平，监视心跳，同时给出建议关于如何更好的开展会议，工作和客户互动。改进工作和提高生产力的机会是巨大的。我在演讲中提到的一个例子就是农场科技：无人机，人工智能和传感器应用于农业。John Deere等公司的机器使用照相机和传感器精确耕田，在正确的地方种植幼苗，并放置足够的水以保持每个植物的湿润。他们可以“看到”杂草，挑选并添加足够的肥料，查看植物的颜色，判断何时收获。这项技术现在已经可以使用，而且它已经提高了农场生产力
组织自身的重新设计
第二个组织问题是组织架构的重设。今天的工作组织基于“生产资料”的世界，我们的“工作”本质上是由人力资源和企业管理人员设计的。我们阅读“职位描述”，“申请工作”，并进行“适合性评估”。经理或人力资源部门审视技能和能力，并决定是否可以适应组织并做好这项工作。组织存在的原因是要利用这个高效率的工业模式 - 作为职业人，我们可以高效地从事重复性工作，公司可以从规模经济中获益。今天这个经济模式受到打击。我们的研究表明， 92％的公司认为他们的组织设计不起作用，但只有14％知道如何解决这个问题。我们的答案是首先赋能小团队使员工团结一致，然后将这些团队联系起来，构建组织文化使人们保持团结一致，使人们创新，交付，和在第一线服务客户。当我们处在这场大规模革命的早期阶段时，其最大的影响之一就是工作性质本身。通用电气，思科，德勤，以及AirBnB，Uber等众多颠覆性公司正朝着这个方向发展。加里•哈默尔（Gary Hamel）和米歇尔•扎尼尼（Michele Zanini） 认为，仅仅在美国省去不必要的“中层管理人员”每年就能节省3万亿美元。虽然我不能保证这个数字，但显然组织结构正在发生变化，技术的进步减少了企业对传统管理者角色的需求。这对我们个人来说意味着我们的“职位”和“职位”已经不再那么重要了。重要的是“你知道该怎么做”以及你的个人和专业声誉。也意味着我们都必须学习如何不断重振自我，销售和定位我们的技能和经验，并且乐于接受新的工作和新的角色。
工作会消失吗？
关于未来工作的最普遍的标题是工作正在消失。牛津大学撰写了一份广为人知的报告，其中47％的职位将在未来20年“消失”。那么我当然希望如此！我很喜欢收费员，清道夫，垃圾人，甚至公交车司机的工作。这不是一件坏事：研究表明，对于每一个“消失”的工作来说，都会有一两个新工种产生。我不是在谈论计算机编程所需的少量工作（甚至软件工程师将很快实现自动化），我们看到的每一个例子都表明，当“自动化”到来的同时也创造了新的工作。正如麻省理工学院着名教授戴维·奥特（David Autor） 所言：“就业与人口比例在20世纪上升。研究表明在过去的140年里，技术一直是”出色的就业制造机器“。德勤英国公司总经理Ron Hancock表示：“我们应该使工作自动化，人性化。让我们把世俗的机器和目的交给人们。“（德勤研究” 在机器时代工作的基本技能 “）我举两个例子。在二十世纪八十年代，从ATM机开始，银行业出现了一波自动化浪潮。当时的文章预测了银行分行，分行出纳员由于金融服务业自动化将导致就业的消失。事实上正好相反：如今，全世界有超过100万台ATM机，几乎是银行分行的四倍，比八十年代增加了10％以上。自动化使金融交易市场极大扩展。今天的柜员做更高层次的事情（销售以及处理复杂的交易）。我们大多数人去ATM然后走进银行。第二个例子：1981年第一张电子表格被发明出来（最初的Multiplan，后来导致了Lotus 1-2-3，最终导致了Excel）。而华尔街的金融分析师们一直创建基于纸张的电子表格用于财务分析。他们消失了吗？当然不是，情况恰恰相反：今天有更多的财务分析师（包括我们也适用电子表格），其中最优秀饿就是最擅长使用Excel等工具的专家，因此创造了一个更强大的分析师新行业。正如我对德勤一位合伙人所说的那样，你是否担心你的吸尘器将要拿到你的工作？我真的希望吸尘器可以变得更智能，当然也更安静。所以这个问题的答案是NO。工作不会消失而只是在改变。
关于这个话题的最后一点。许多人的技能是必不可少的 。德勤英国的研究调查了数百份工作概况，并将其与牛津大学的研究进行了对照，确定了25项关键的“人才技能”。随着技术的发展，这些技能将变得越来越重要。这些是本质上是人的技能，它们为将来重新设计工作和职业提供了一个指导方针。
下图：基本的人类技能
从列表中可以看出，同理心，倾听，交流和优先排序等技能本质上是人的技能。所以工作的未来不是关于工作的消失，而是关于每个人如何重新定义工作和更好地利用工具。
未来人们和职业将会如何？
未来组织，个人和社会都将变化。我们和组织如何适应呢？在个人层面上，我们每个人都必须学习新的工具。1981年当个人电脑出现在“速记池”时，打字员面临失业的风险。但这些人学会了使用电脑，后来成为秘书、行政助理、作家。我自1978年就开始工作，当时没有语音信箱，电脑，或电子邮件。但是我学会了这些现代化工具，现在我和我的孩子一样轻易使用Snapchat和Instagram这样的应用程序。害怕科技的人会落后，所以我们都要强迫自己学习。如果你是一名人力资源专业人士或商业领袖，你也必须学习技术 - 因为它会影响组织工作的方式。
在组织层面上，成功的关键就是我们现在所谓的设计思维。组织需要了解哪些技术可以做，然后用它来增强客户和员工的体验。让我举几个例子：星巴克或Peets可以选择在其商店安装机器人咖啡机，然而并没有。因为客户体验的重点是可以与咖啡师的进行对话，咖啡的味道和气味，杯子上手写的个人称谓。因此这些公司不断提高咖啡师的工作，稳步提高工资和福利，改善客户体验。Wegman曾被评为美国最好的工作场所之一，他们教导员工放下手机，直接和客户谈话。举行“无电话”会议，构建了使用技术构建后台任务而不是打断客户体验的公司文化。每个公司都有机会重新思考自己的客户和员工的经验，并运用技术使其更好。在某些情况下，这意味着要换工作，但在大多数情况下，这也意味着要使工作“更好”，降低成本和平凡的工作，并增加客户互动的价值。
组织中最大的挑战之一是创造一个更有活力的职业模式。公司现在主要关注内部人才流动性，自主学习以及新的软件工具，以帮助人们找到下一份工作。例如，思科，百胜品牌，Wegman和WL戈尔等公司已经重新定义了他们的管理原则，积极地让员工从一个工作岗位，一个角色转到另一个岗位。事实证明，现代和有活力的职业生涯环境是成功雇主品牌的因素之一。我们的研究成员最近通过Deloitte WhatWorks奖授予了“万宝盛华”（Marriott a Bersin）奖，旨在吸引年轻人进入动态，便利的管理职业。
教育和公共政策必须跟上
许多人认为教育机构没有跟上对社会对稳定技能的需求。我相信，教育在基础技能（思考，写作，分析，数学，科学）的发展中仍然起着至关重要的作用，并且在新教育产业（Pluralsight，大会，EdX和其他数百人）我们迅速学习新的工作技能。公共政策起着很大的作用。很明显，关于收入不平等和派遣工作平台的影响也正在广泛的讨论中。虽然现在更容易找到临时工，但这些工作大部分没有收益，没有休假政策，没有加班，几乎没有与工作有关的费用报销。许多政策制定者正在争取自筹资金的“安全账户”和新的第三类工人为日益增长的临时工提供公平的工资和福利。其他人现在主张“ 共享安全账户 ”，这样人们在更换工作角色和公司时仍可以投入到自己的职业生涯中。经济学家甚至对“ 保证基本收入 ”作为振兴创新和职业再创新的激励机制进行辩论。鉴于有必要加速个人创新和不断重振经济，这些想法都值得考虑。
个人职业
我最近有机会与加里·博莱斯（Gary Bolles）沟通，其父亲的著作《你的降落伞是什么颜色》是关于如何找工作的最好的书籍之一。加里和我一致认为，在今天的“未来工作”中建立的最重要的技能就是“个人改造”的能力 - 放弃今天的自我，根据工作的变化不断自我重新定位。这是一个紧迫的话题。劳工统计局认为美国人在他们有生之年将有12-14份的职业，所以我们必须放弃“你＝工作”的想法。如果您想通过名片上的标题来定义自我价值和个人身份，可能会感到失望。我已经有了超过38年的职业生涯，并曾在技术支持，销售，客户管理，市场营销，产品管理，项目管理，业务发展，工程和行政领导方面工作过。也曾在五个不同的行业工作过，从一个“实习生”到一个CEO和创始人一路扶持。现在我不再以自己的头衔来定义自己，只是简单地告诉人们“我做什么”。我的朋友即将退休。其中一位曾作为商业经理曾走遍世界，他对我说：“记得你年轻的时候，那个坐在隔间里指导他人工作和就职的人吗？现在我也在做。”他仍然热爱工作却贡献了另一种方式，就是帮助其他年轻人获得成功。这个故事还有很多，我来简单总结下：“未来的工作”就在眼前改变，若不时时警惕注意很有可能错过。
花一些时间学习一两个新的工具；参加所在领域的专业会议；花时间与同行交流。每一个人都为未来的工作做准备，且这不会像你想象的那么可怕。
Josh Bersin is Founder and Principal at Bersin by Deloitte, leading provider of research-based membership programs in human resources (HR), talent and learning. I am a global research analyst, public speaker, and writer on the topics of corporate human resources, talent management, recruiting, leadership, technology, and the intersection between work and life.
Josh Bersin
Josh Bersin
Josh Bersin
Josh Bersin
Josh Bersin
Josh Bersin
Josh Bersin
Josh Bersin
Josh Bersin
Josh Bersin
